THE QB ROOM

It wasn’t pretty. LaFleur’s words right after the game sum up quite well the Packers’ longest game of the season so far, ending with a thrilling finish in OT.

The Packers were challenged to provide a fast and strong response after the collapse against the Vikings, possibly showing that the fourth-quarter collapse was more of an unexpected event than the team’s usual response when adversity takes over the script. LaFleur’s team has lost nine times since 2023 after leading in the fourth quarter, four of those times while holding a lead of 10+ points.

The Packers’ answer was neither pretty, decisive, nor convincing. In fact, putting aside for a moment the NFL mantra — which I have never particularly liked — a win is a win, the game leaves even more question marks about the rest of the season. In my view, offensive efficiency, O-line consistency, and team discipline were the areas where the high marks from the opener were asking for confirmation in this game. Aside, the O-line, I believe the other two actually went south.

In particular, GB committed 14 penalties for 133 yards, worsening the performance of the opener in Minnesota. This is an aspect that I find particularly worrying. Beyond the technical and tactical aspects related to players and coaching staff, giving away so many yards on penalties seems to suggest, already this early in the season, a lack of common purpose among the players and an inability by the coaching staff to instill and maintain discipline.

Jordan Love and his unit managed to worsen the offense in almost every statistical category. The success rate dropped to 32% (from 38%), with the pass rate over expected twice as low as against the Vikings in Week 1. True, Love connected for touchdowns with both Watson — who is having the best start to a season of his career in terms of TD receptions — and MarShawn Lloyd, who scored his first NFL touchdown, although the latter seemed more like a fortunate outcome from a broken play. Still, a 55% completion rate and an average of 5.0 yards per play don’t really catch the eye. Most of all, the Jets defense — or perhaps the inability of the Packers offense — cut the rate of explosive plays in half compared with the season opener, taking away one of the ideological pillars of LaFleur’s offense.

The O-line seems to have done a better job of protecting Love in the pocket. Part of this, however, was also due to LaFleur adapting his strategy toward a quicker passing game, significantly relieving the front line of the pressure it faced against Brian Flores’ unit in Week 1. Along with this adjustment, I think the O-line looked slightly more comfortable, with the QB-hit rate dropping and Love appearing more secure in the pocket while progressing through his reads. On a positive note, there was also some improvement in red-zone efficiency, which has been a red flag for the Packers since the end of last season.

Overall, I thought the passing game showed some improvement, whether because of the team’s adjustments or the opponent. The rushing game, however, remains a major problem. The running backs accumulated only 63 yards on 18 carries, averaging 3.5 yards per attempt. The problems extended beyond the O-line: receivers and tight ends also played their part, missing blocks and assignments.

The game was largely taken over by both defenses, which kept the score at a low 7–7 until the end of the third quarter and effectively controlled the game until the final eight minutes of regulation, when Love led the comeback.

The Packers defense hit the quarterback almost twice as often as the Jets did, while recording a similar number of sacks — four for the Packers and three for the Jets. Lukas Van Ness had one of those days, with 10 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, four QB hits and three tackles for loss, making his presence more than felt by the Jets offense. The Packers were also more effective at the line of scrimmage, recording nine tackles for loss, compared with six by the Jets. Looking at these numbers, it seems that the GB defensive corps had a very productive game at the individual level.

However, team-wise, the balance shifted toward the Jets, with the Packers allowing their offense to operate at a somewhat higher success rate. In fact, GB lost more than twice as much expected-point value per play as the Jets, with an offensive EPA of −0.222 compared with the Jets’ −0.106. On the other hand, GB did a better job of limiting explosive plays, allowing them on just 4.2% of plays compared with 6.0% allowed by the Jets.

A mention of (dis)honour goes to Javon Bullard. For a team looking for discipline, the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty called on third-and-9 in the first quarter, after successfully defending a pass, was inexcusable.

Nobody expected the Packers to suddenly turn into a historically high-scoring offense, or the O-line to become the Cowboys’ Great Wall. Yet nobody expected, either, that after five minutes the Falcons would expose everything that has been wrong with LaFleur’s team — probably since the beginning of his tenure in Green Bay.

The Packers were called upon to build on the win over the Jets, and in particular to show that the offense — and the O-line especially — was finally on a path toward greater efficiency and solidity.

By the end of the first quarter, I could already have written the final summary of the game, regardless of the final score: atrocious O-line, poor decisions by Love, non-existent run game, poor defense. More shocking, and incredibly frustrating, was a general lack of purpose across the entire team, almost as if the fate of the squad had somehow already been written.

The Packers were booed by their own fans at Lambeau. It was difficult to imagine anything worse. Then Tucker Kraft decided to criticize the fans for their lack of support in a postgame interview. Perhaps someone should explain to Kraft that professional sports entertainment — and, ultimately, his salary — works as long as fans remain entertained. Given the effort they make to follow and support the team, they have every right to criticize his performance.

When the Packers scored with Watson on the second possession, I thought LaFleur and the offense had finally managed to install a good game plan. What followed were 27 unanswered points by the Falcons, stretching into the fourth quarter, a final offensive EPA of 0.014 — basically zero expected points added per play — and an offensive success rate below 40%. Notably, a rush EPA of -0.301, with 17 (17!) yards on 9 (9!) carries, which forced the offense to become one-dimensional and Love to throw 53 times.

The complete inability of the team to run the ball is a dagger to LaFleur’s offense, which needs both air and ground threats to move the ball as vertically as possible with explosive plays (the team had a 6% explosive-play rate, compared with an average of 8.9% across the season). Josh Jacobs, the sky knows when/if he will return, would probably not add much to this picture. And we all know who to blame.

The offensive line was atrocious, both in pass protection and in the run game. Lack of communication, lack of experience, poor fundamentals, players not up to the standard. Maybe a linear combination of all of the above. The QB-hit rate allowed jumped to 22.2%, more than twice the 9.4% recorded against the Jets the previous week.

I think some frames from the game speak for themselves about how this offense operated. The examples I’ll discuss here all come from the first half, but the underlying problems remained largely unchanged after halftime

The two figures in the first row below show two screen-pass plays, which to me highlight the complete disorganization of the blocking. In the first case, Love passed to Lloyd, who was immediately tackled, despite having three O-linemen blocking for him against only one Atlanta linebacker. On the second play, Lloyd is able to gain more yards, but both Packers O-linemen contribute almost nothing to the play, being immediately overwhelmed by a single Falcons defender.

Pictures in the second row show why Love may not survive the 2026 season. In the first image, Love is able to complete a pass to Kraft out of desperation, with the three Falcons defenders on the right still able to hit Love at the end of the play with a dangerous pancake. The second picture is almost inexplicable. Love has the ball at the Packers’ 12-yard line and is hit by a Falcons linebacker left completely unblocked to run at full speed toward the QB.

Blocking in the run game clearly did not work either. Look at the two pictures below. In both cases Lloyd has no space in the gap to run through, with O-linemen collapsing or leaving defenders completely free to tackle the runner. In the second picture, No. 53 of the Falcons is literally in the gap through which Lloyd is supposed to run…

While almost every sports outlet is probably pointing fingers at the O-line — rightfully so — in my opinion Love’s performance, and his style of play more generally, were not convincing either. I want to spend more than a few words on this, and be honest. I don’t believe Love is a winning type of QB, if such a breed even exists. To be precise with the terminology, to me a winning QB is one who gets first downs. Multiple times. Consistently. Moving the chains and exhausting the opposing defense. Six years into the league, Love instead keeps favoring hero balls, deep passes into double coverage and extremely tight windows with a very low probability of completion, rather than checkdowns and efficient short plays that could move the chains. Sure, when the pass connects — and often you also need an adjustment by the receiver and a pinch of luck — the crowd explodes and everything seems perfect. But in the grand scheme of things, how much does Love’s style actually help the Packers win?

When LaFleur says at halftime that one of the offense’s problems is its inability to get into rhythm, well, I believe Love’s style becomes part of the problem.

The pictures below show, in my opinion, two situations in which better — or simply different — choices could have led to different results. On the left, the Packers are facing second-and-13 from their own 20-yard line. Kraft in the middle and Brooks in the flat are open, but Love decides to throw a deep ball to Golden in double coverage. The pass falls incomplete, and the drive ends in a three-and-out on the next play. On the right, it is second-and-5 in the second quarter. Here the receivers are covered more effectively by the defense, but Kraft still has inside leverage on his defender. Instead of attacking the middle of the field, Love again chooses a 30-plus-yard throw to Golden, who is running a corner route. Once again, three-and-out.

According to PerThirtySix, Love has a CPOE of -10.1 over three weeks (Completion Percentage Over Expected), with a success rate of 40%. By comparison, Purdy leads with +6.3 and a 65.2% success rate. To add a few numbers from the first few weeks, Love has an aDOT (Average Depth of Target) of 8.97, not too far below Purdy, again, at 10.65. In summary, it seems to me that Love has a tendency to throw deep, while his completion percentage and success rate remain low, meaning the QB (and the offense) are not really able to move the chains.

Along with Love and LaFleur’s vertical offense, I also believe that part of this problem is overcompensation for the poor pass protection. Love has one of the lowest times to throw in the league through Week 3. He seems to try to make the most of the few clean opportunities he gets in the pocket to compensate for those in which he has to scramble for his life.

The interception 30 seconds into the game, and the three-and-out on the very next possession, seemed to set the stage for a shutdown performance by the Packers defense. Things went really south instead, with Gannon’s group run over — literally — by the Falcons.

The epitome of the defensive performance is probably in two numbers: 41 carries for a total of 242 yards on the ground by Atlanta, with the majority (194) coming from Bijan Robinson.

Atlanta’s offense was successful on 64.6% of its plays, with a very positive 0.332 expected points added per action. The Falcons basically succeeded on two out of three plays, regardless of whether they attacked on the ground or through the air. Combined with zero sacks (9.1% defensive sack rate against the Jets) and a 3.8% QB-hit rate (16.7% against the Jets) by the Packers, we can fairly say that Atlanta’s O-line controlled the line of scrimmage in both phases, either protecting Penix or opening lanes for their running backs.

I am not sure what I was expecting from this game. Considering my overall concerns about the team and LaFleur’s management, a complete collapse by the Packers against a 0-3 team missing its starting QB was not an event with zero probability. For sure, I would have expected a spark of pride, something to prove that the players want to fight for every inch of the field while wearing the Green and Gold. Instead, the Battle of the Bays turned into a battle in the mud. One of those victories (please don’t tell me a win is a win) that are indicative of how bad the team is (at least at the moment). A thrilling 17-14 victory, with an absolutely boring second half in which the two teams scored a combined 14 points, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, replacing an injured Baker Mayfield, scored his first NFL touchdown (and threw two picks).

All of this after Brian Gutekunst went into emergency mode during the week, signing four veteran O-linemen and reversing his preseason optimism. Many (including LaFleur) would say that there were some positive signs compared with the Falcons game. I don’t want to play the role of the “always negative critic”, but questions about whether these positives are random occurrences or the seeds of a structured improvement remain very much open. With the Bears up next, I guess we’re going to see what kind of mettle this team is made of.

Let’s start with the good things, then. The new additions, Travis Glover and Laken Tomlinson, took their places at right and left guard, respectively. Out of necessity (Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are injured) or by choice, the changes seemed effective, with the O-line performing well, at least in pass protection. The QB-hit rate allowed dropped to a season low of 6.7%, with Love taking no sacks. The offensive success rate also improved considerably, reaching 46.2%, the highest so far in 2026, along with a very positive 0.230 dropback EPA/play (0.066 against the Falcons).

That said, the Bucs didn’t enter Week 4 with an elite defensive front, having one of the lowest pressure rates in the league. And in fact, highlighting how dysfunctional the Packers offense remains despite the O-line’s progress, offensive EPA/play stagnated at an almost irrelevant 0.018 (0.014 in Week 3). The running game remains the weak point of LaFleur’s offense.
The Packers clearly tried to be more balanced, attacking on the ground more often than in the previous game (pass rate over expected dropped to 1.0 pp from 11.8 pp in Week 3). Rush EPA/play remained consistently negative: the team rushed for 86 yards in total on 25 carries, almost half of Tampa Bay’s total, averaging a very modest 3.5 yards per rush. The Packers rank last in the league in yards before contact per RB rush, with an average of 0.5 yards across the first four weeks. This suggests that the O-line is not really creating running lanes for the running backs, leaving Lloyd, Johnson and Brooks to generate additional yardage after contact.

With 6.6 yards per pass, an explosive-play rate remaining flat at around 6%, and a very low 20% third-down conversion rate, the offense seemed capable of moving the chains, but only up to a certain point. Green Bay reached the Buccaneers’ red zone just three times, scoring two touchdowns. Tucker Kraft scored his first TD of the season, hopefully shaking off the last rust from his previous injury.

With the offense struggling to generate enough momentum to win the game, the defense had to step up to keep the Buccaneers — again with a rookie QB — in check. Gannon’s group showed it was up to the task from the very beginning. On the very first series, Edgerrin Cooper, later carted off with a season-ending injury, sacked Daniels on third down. On Tampa Bay’s next possession, Ewan Williams intercepted a pass intended for Egbuka on first down.

The defense maintained that intensity throughout the game, proving to be effective in stopping Tampa’s attack during all quarters, and holding the opponents to −0.038 EPA/play and a 44.3% offensive success rate.

The defense won the sack battle 3-0, also making its presence felt by hitting QB Jalon Daniels on 20% of his dropbacks. Gannon went heavy on the blitz against the Bucs, sending extra rushers on 47.22% of defensive snaps, well above the NFL average. The strategy paid off, especially on the final series of the game, with three blitzes on four downs helping Green Bay secure the win.

I hate the Bears. Since the first time I started following the Packers. One of my fondest football memories is Aaron Rodgers beating the Bears on one leg, after coming back from injury in the second half of the 2018 regular-season game. So this may be the only game in which “a win is a win”, clean or dirty.

That said, the Packers entered Week 5 as heavy underdogs, facing their greatest rivals in football after four weeks of criticism, still in search of an identity. Possibly a defining game, even at this early stage of the season.

The Bears played without their franchise quarterback. Still, I think it is fair to say that the game went far beyond expectations for the Packers, who dominated Chicago in every phase of the game. A punch in the face, to quote Ben Johnson (I could be more explicit if I really wanted to cite him and lose any sense of etiquette). The Packers scored 31 points, which could have been at least 38 if Trey Smack had done his job when it mattered. And overall, a general sense of domination, with LaFleur (I liked him a lot today, including his poise during the postgame handshake) almost seeming intent on ridiculing the opposing defense.

Beyond the excitement, some questions, especially concerning the run game and the offense’s ability to score in the red zone, remain open. For the time being, the Packers can prepare with less pressure and more confidence for the Monday night showdown against the Cowboys.

If LaFleur could describe one of his offensive dreams, I am pretty sure it would resemble the performance against the Bears. Love threw for 367 yards, completing 80% of his passes for 2 TDs and his highest passer rating of the season. Two more touchdowns by MarShawn Lloyd brought the total to 31 points, which could have been 38 if Smack had done his kicking job.

More than the points, you could feel throughout the game the Packers’ ability (and willingness) to do whatever they wanted against the Bears’ defense.

Watson and Golden both recorded over 100 receiving yards, with their longest receptions going for 53 and 50 yards, respectively.
Just to give an example of how aggressive LaFleur and Love were — probably sensing the weaknesses in the Bears’ secondary — the first TD pass to Christian Watson was a 42-yard bomb on first-and-10 from Chicago’s 42-yard line. The second score was even more impressive. The drive consisted of just of four plays: a 31-yard pass to Watson, a run for a loss, an incompletion, a 43-yard touchdown nullified by a penalty, and finally a 53-yard touchdown pass to Watson.

The Packers recorded an offensive EPA/play of 0.259, their highest this season, with a massive Completion Percentage Over Expected of +16.2 percentage points and an explosive-play rate of 13.8%, well above the league median through five weeks.

As I said, the Bears’ secondary did everything possible to help LaFleur play his explosive game. But credit also goes to the offensive line, which has shown progress in pass protection, making Love more comfortable with his preferred deep-passing style.

If I have to find something to criticize about the offensive performance, I’d point to two aspects. First, considering how dominant the offense was on the field, I believe we wasted opportunities to score even more, with four punts (and two missed field goals). Second, the running game. Yes, Lloyd scored his first NFL touchdown, and then added a second. But 70 total rushing yards on 26 carries is still poor for a team that wants to compete for a postseason spot. Rush EPA/play remains close to zero, but still negative, and a pass rate over expected of almost six percentage points signals an offense that remains largely one-dimensional.

Four sacks, eight tackles for loss, ten QB hits, three interceptions and two recovered fumbles. There is little to add except that the Packers’ defense had a heck of a day, holding the Bears to just seven points, all scored in the second quarter. Green Bay recorded a defensive EPA/play allowed of −0.340, by far its lowest value this season, compared with a season average of −0.034, highlighting its complete control over the Bears’ offense.

Two things stand out above all. First, Gannon continues to demonstrate his ability to generate pressure on the QB, with a QB-hit rate above 19% for the second week in a row, even without his star pass rusher Parsons and the recently injured Edgerrin Cooper. Second, the Packers’ defense is elite at generating turnovers, especially when it comes to intercepting the opposing quarterback, leading the league in interceptions.

The Packers winning the Divisional Round against the Cowboys on January 15, 2017, with an incredible throw and catch by Rodgers and Cook. The thrilling victory in Dallas during Week 5 of 2017, with a 12-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams and only 11 seconds remaining. These stay two of my fondest Packers memories from my ten years of following the team. The games against the Cowboys remain part of a strong rivalry between two NFC teams that face each other at least once every three years.

The Sunday Night game was not the most spectacular among their recent meetings in terms of scoring. The Packers defense won the game, with Gannon’s group holding Dallas to just 7 points until the final minute, intercepting Dak Prescott twice.

The Packers offense came with its usual highs and lows. The receiving corps, led by Watson and Golden, continues to look elite in the league — despite three costly drops. The running game, however, remains the real Achilles’ heel of LaFleur’s offense. Hopefully, Josh Jacobs coming off the Commissioner’s Exempt List may spark new life into an offense that, for the moment, looks one-dimensional.

Green Bay is now 4-2 after a rough start to the season and many doubts about the team’s stability. I believe the Packers are still searching for a real identity, which will soon be tested against tough opponents over the next four weeks (Lions, Panthers, Patriots and Vikings).

I am not sure how to interpret the Packers’ offensive performance. Love closes the first quarter with a touchdown on the opening possession, followed by an interception on the second. A field goal and another touchdown close out the first half. LaFleur’s offense doesn’t punt for the first time until one minute into the third quarter. Then, plenty of inconsistency, with only six additional points, all coming from Smack’s field goals.

Offensive EPA/play remains close to the season average at 0.034, with the second-lowest offensive success rate of the season.

I don’t think Love played particularly well. He completed 56% of his passes, ranking now third from the bottom in completion percentage among QBs who have played six games. Completion Percentage Over Expected against the Cowboys also turned negative at -5.8 percentage points, after two positive weeks. On one hand, drops by receivers certainly don’t help: the Packers rank second behind the Titans in this unfortunate category, with a 9% drop rate. Golden dropped a costly pass just one play before catching the touchdown at the end of the second quarter. On the other hand, Love also ranks sixth in percentage of bad throws, which could be partially explained by the offensive line’s performance. The unit has actually improved in pass protection over the last two games (following the new additions), although Love was still sacked three times against the Cowboys.

Love also scored a TD from the 1-yard line. And that was about it for the run game which, I don’t know how many times we can say this, is basically non-existent. A rush EPA/play of -0.157, 57 yards in total on 26 carries, with the longest run coming from Love himself for 13 yards. I don’t think these numbers even deserve a comment.

I can only hope that Josh Jacobs can help reinvigorate the running game. Because the current running back corps doesn’t seem up to the task, despite some recent excitement which, to me, comes from completely naive analyses.

The 8:17-minute drive in the second quarter, which ended with a field goal by Smack, summarises the problem, I believe. The Packers rank ninth in the league with 21 red-zone trips (inside the opponent’s 20), but 24th in the percentage of trips that ended with a TD, and 31st (second from the bottom) in the percentage of trips ending with either a TD or a field goal.

We don’t know how to finish drives.

Let me say it again. Gannon and his unit won the game, there is no doubt about it. It’s not only that the Cowboys’ offense was almost shut down until garbage time, but rather the general sense of dominance throughout all four quarters. The Packers defense was ferocious at every point of contact, holding Dallas to a defensive EPA of -0.133. I think at times it was “too ferocious”. Two taunting penalties at this level are inexcusable, and this is something that could cost the Packers dearly when games become win-or-go-home affairs.

I think the secondary played particularly well. High marks for the safeties Bullard and Williams, and the cornerbacks Nixon and Cisse, who combined for 24 tackles. Among the key plays of the game were interceptions by Williams, who continues to establish himself as an elite player in the league, and 2025 rookie Cisse, who is emerging as a leading cornerback for the Packers. A potential third interception by Carrington Valentine was wiped out by a roughing-the-passer penalty on Lukas Van Ness at 7:43 in the fourth quarter.

The first interception by the Packers was a thing of beauty, both for the scheme orchestrated by Gannon and Williams’ execution. The two pictures below show the play. Prescott was about to throw, still shaken by a heavy hit from Zaire Franklin, who had blitzed him on the previous play. Williams lined up at the line of scrimmage, almost as if ready to blitz Prescott again. As soon as the center snapped the ball, he dropped back toward the middle of the field, catching Prescott by surprise. The intended throw to Lamb on the right ended up in the arms of the Packers safety.

I think Williams’ interception was a game changer, coming so early in the game and killing Dallas’ momentum as they tried to answer the Packers’ opening score.

The second pick, by Cisse with two minutes remaining in the second quarter, put a dagger into Dallas, giving Jordan Love the opportunity to score and send the Packers into halftime with a 17-0 lead.

I also want to give credit to Javon Bullard, whom I have been somewhat critical of in previous weeks for his excessive passion, which has cost the team precious yards. His defensive play at the beginning of the fourth quarter, breaking up a Prescott pass on fourth-and-2, set the final tone for the game, showing the Cowboys that there was no room for high-risk gambles.

If there is something to criticize, it is the defense’s inability to consistently pressure the quarterback with its defensive line. Only one sack, by Van Ness, and the second-lowest QB-hit rate of the season. Help from Micah Parsons coming off the injury list is much needed at this point.